Midwest rent growth trends are dominating national rankings in 2023 and signaling a shift in multifamily performance. In a market defined by volatility and oversupply, especially across the Sunbelt, the Midwest quietly continues to outperform.
Recent data from CoStar Group’s Apartments.com shows that Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, and St. Louis have taken the top four spots for year-over-year rent growth—driven by healthy job growth and a disciplined supply pipeline.
In contrast, Sunbelt cities like Miami and Orlando are seeing sharp deceleration in rent growth as a flood of new units hits softening demand. These shifting fundamentals are prompting institutional investors and private capital alike to reevaluate their allocations.
In fact, Midwest rent growth trends are now seen as a signal of long-term opportunity—marked by resilience, balance, and real upside.
Midwest Rent Growth Trends vs. Sunbelt Oversupply
While once the darlings of the multifamily sector, Sunbelt markets are stumbling under the weight of their own construction pipelines. According to CoStar:
- Miami rent growth dropped from 3.8% to 2.9%.
- Orlando declined more dramatically—from 2.9% to just 1.4%.
- Miami also leads the nation in apartment construction, with 17.7% of its inventory under development.
- Orlando isn’t far behind at 13.1%.
In essence, developers may have overreached. These regions are seeing demand fall just as new supply peaks—a classic setup for flattening returns and tougher rent escalations.
Why Midwest Rent Growth Trends Remain Resilient
Conversely, the Midwest has maintained a strong grip on the top rent growth rankings:
- Indianapolis: 6.1%
- Cincinnati: 5.6%
- Columbus: 4.8%
- St. Louis: 4.3%
While growth has moderated slightly, Midwest rent growth trends remain significantly stronger than the national average—and substantially more stable.
New supply remains modest in these regions for the % of inventory under construction:
- Indianapolis: 4.2%
- Cincinnati: 4.3%
- Columbus: 4.7%
- St. Louis: 3.1%
This disciplined development pace allows demand to remain in balance, sustaining pricing power and limiting vacancy spikes.
Price Discovery and Capital Realignment
The broader market continues to navigate a tightening lending environment, which is driving down transaction volumes across the multifamily sector. Rent growth remains a primary input for valuations, and as deal flow slows, market participants are recalibrating.
In this moment, Midwest rent growth trends provide a rare signal of stability. For investors seeking lower volatility, long-term yield, and real cash flow, these fundamentals offer a compelling case for increased regional allocation.
As a matter of fact, what some once called “boring” is now becoming a strategic edge.
Final Thoughts: The Midwest’s “Boring” Advantage is a Beautiful Thing
For over a decade, the Sunbelt captured the spotlight—thanks to population growth and outsized rent appreciation. But real estate returns aren’t about flash; they’re about fundamentals. And in this cycle, the numbers are pointing toward the Midwest.
Markets once overlooked are now proving their mettle. With fewer construction headwinds, stronger balance, and risk-adjusted performance, Midwest rent growth trends are proving difficult to ignore.
Looking to align your capital with real-world performance?
Explore our strategy to learn how PRPI leverages Midwest rent growth trends for long-term success.