Dayton’s Economy Fuels Unprecedented Rent Growth
Dayton, Ohio, has emerged as a nationwide leader in rent growth, largely due to the economic impact of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB). We first started investing in Dayton-area multi-family assets in 2006. As of August 2024, Dayton’s rental market is experiencing record-breaking demand, driven by a surge in high-paying STEM jobs, military procurement operations, and major corporate investments.
These high-paying jobs were part of what drew us to this region. However, we were also concerned about what could happen if these jobs were moved or redeployed. This was a real fear due to the nationwide “Base Realignment and Closure” (BRAC) process that had been underway since the end of the Cold War. Nevertheless, we were assured that Wright Patterson’s missions were so broad and so important that the government would first need to shut down the Air Force before they could shut down “Wright-Patt.”
WPAFB, the largest single-site employer in Ohio, now supports nearly 38,000 employees, doubling its workforce from 18,000 employees in 2002. With a multiplier effect that stimulates local industries, Dayton’s housing demand continues to rise, positioning the city as a top-performing multifamily market in the U.S.
WPAFB’s Economic Impact on Dayton’s Job Market
WPAFB is not only a military hub but also a key driver of economic expansion in the Dayton region:
- The base houses the Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC), which handles 31% of the total Air Force budget.
- AFMC employs over 40% of the Air Force’s civilian workforce, attracting global defense contractors and manufacturers to establish operations near WPAFB.
- Since May 2023, employment at Wright-Patt has surged to nearly 35,000 employees, further accelerating regional job growth.
The Multiplier Effect – Driving Housing Demand
Economists estimate that each high-paying STEM job generates up to five additional service-sector jobs in industries such as:
- Healthcare
- Retail & Dining
- Transportation
- Entertainment
This economic ripple effect significantly boosts housing demand, placing upward pressure on rental prices and home values across the Dayton area.
Corporate Investments Strengthen Dayton’s Economy
Beyond WPAFB, major corporate expansions are further fueling housing and rental market growth:
- Joby Aviation announced a $500 million manufacturing facility in Dayton, expected to create 2,000 new jobs.
- Sierra Nevada Corporation recently opened two Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul (MRO) facilities at Dayton International Airport, marking the first large-scale MRO expansion since World War II.
- Sierra Nevada’s investment will generate 350 high-paying jobs, with many positions offering salaries exceeding $100,000 per year.
These expansions strengthen Dayton’s employment base, further driving demand for rental housing.
Dayton’s Rental Market Outpaces National Trends
Following decades of economic stagnation, Dayton has reversed its trajectory, becoming a leading rent growth market.
- According to Madera Residential Research and Real Page, Dayton is currently ranked No. 1 in the nation for rent growth.
- Eight of the top 17 fastest-growing rental markets are located in the Midwest, reinforcing the region’s economic resurgence.
This trend reflects both the cooling of Sunbelt markets like Phoenix, Miami, and Houston and the increasing appeal of Midwestern cities, fueled by re-shoring initiatives and industrial revitalization. However, unlike in past cycles, formerly hard hit Midwestern markets may also be starting to benefit from a deeper understanding of damage caused by the “China Shock” in the 1990s, and recent efforts of elected leaders to reverse these effects through a renewed policy emphasis on re-shoring and near-shoring.
Dayton’s Housing Market Poised for Continued StrengthDayton’s Housing Market Poised for Continued Strength
With WPAFB’s continued expansion, a robust job market, and corporate investment in advanced manufacturing, Dayton is positioned for long-term rent growth. The city’s affordable cost of living, strategic location, and surging demand for housing make it an attractive market for investors and developers looking for high-yield multifamily opportunities.
As Midwestern markets continue to outperform traditional coastal and Sunbelt cities, Dayton’s strong economic foundation suggests its rental growth trajectory will remain solid in the years ahead.